The Tahoe Central Sierra Initiative (TCSI) Blueprint is a set of strategy maps that identify opportunities for forest protection and adaptation across a 2.4-million-acre region of the central Sierra Nevada. Its aim is to improve resilience across the region to anticipated climate change and wildfire-, beetle-, and drought-caused tree mortality.

This web application provides a GIS-like interface with the main map outputs from the model. The Blueprint v3 currently includes 5 of the 10 pillars of resilience: Forest resilience, Fire dyamics, Fire adapted communities, Carbon, and Biodiversity. Model outputs from each Pillar-level evaluation were then combined into a final Ecosystem-level assessment, which can be used alone or in combination with the Pillar-level evaluations to assess management needs.

Model outputs are 15-m raster maps that can be downloaded using the icon, which will download a zipfile that includes all associated maps. Zipfiles include several maps, each reflecting a different evaluation of the data.

Firstly, the current map evaluates current (2019) conditions against target or desired conditions and outputs a map with cell values ranging from -1 (fully departed, red) to +1 (within target conditions, blue). The future map similarly evaluates future (2020-2060) conditions, which were quantified using LANDIS-II simulation modeling to determine the potential for a given cell to reach target conditions and the variability of conditions over time.

Several other maps were developed that directly integrate both current and future conditions assessments to better identify broad restoration strategies best suited to the modeled outcomes.

Monitor scores indicate areas that are in good condition now and into the future; suggesting managment intervention may not be necessary in the short term. Darker blue colors indicate Monitor scores closer to +1 and provide stronger support for the monitoring strategy.

Protect scores indicate areas that are currently in good condition but conditions deteriorate over time; suggesting treatments in and around these areas may help maintain them over time. Darker orange colors indicate Protect scores closer to +1 and provide stronger support for the protection strategy.

Adapt scores indicate areas that are currently in poor condition but, under natural disturbance processes, exhibit the capacity to achieve desired conditions in the future. Managmenet in these areas would have a higher likelihood of success given their demonstrated ability to achieve and maintain target conditions over time. Darker purple colors indicate Adapt scores closer to +1 and provide stronger support for the adaptation strategy.

Transform scores indicate areas that are currently in poor condition and remain so over time. In terms of sequencing treatments over large landscapes, these areas may not be the first in line for treatment given the lack of evidence for them to achieve and maintain target conditions over time, thereby increasing the uncertainty in management effectivness. Darker red colors indicate Transform scores closer to +1 and provide stronger support for the transformation strategy.

Strategy scores reflect the quadrant score (i.e., monitor, protect, adapt, transform) with the most support for a given cell. Scores were further classifed into strong (darker colors) and weak (lighter colors) scores based on the level of support for a given score (i.e., strong: 0.2 to 1.0 and weak: -1.0 to 0.2).

Impact scores indicate the maximum level of support for either Adapt or Protect strategies. These areas would benefit most from management given the goals of protecting resources that are currently functional on the landscape (Protect) and treating those areas with the highest certainty of success from treatment (Adapt). Red colors (scores closer to +1) indicate areas with strong support for either Adapt or Protect strategies, while blue colors (scores closer to -1) indicate low support for these strategies.